The Democratic and Republican Party are merely the liberal and conservative wings of the same party (who are financed and controlled by wall-street and the banks). They only care about increasing their wealth, retaining their power and don't give a crap about the average working American. Nothing will change until we have a viable third party (which they will never allow). I say vote them both out!!
This article was funny. Thanks for the good laugh early on a Friday morning!! The people of this great nation are comin... whether the leftist media likes it or not!
I think we have to stop listening to Republicans. They deliberately waste our time. When we respond to their foolishness, we are accepting how they have "framed" the debate. They get us off track and away from reality.
For example, when we respond to Obama's citizenship, we are NOT talking about real issues. Like jobs, the economy, consumer protection...
Wow, the media blitz is in full swing this morning. There are at least four articles on the MSN homepage postulating that the Dems might not get whipped as badly as it appears. Too bad for the Dems: the media articles are wishful thinking; the ass-kicking on Nov 2nd is going to be real.
and to me you all sound like exactly what you are saying we sound like. it sounds like you have wishful thinking that you will win all the seats. i will just say that i don't need to make predictions as those are worth about as much as a dog fart.
Pssst please let me in on the big secret. You people are here every day, commenting on the liberal bias of MSNBC. Yet you hate liberals and you hate MSNBC. So why are you here? Is this trash talk before the big game on November 2nd? Do you have secret orders to preach to those of us who are misinformed? Is there some other reason that compels you here everyday?
My wish is that EVERY election from now until eternity turns polls on their head for both Democrats and Republicans.
When a politician can stand at the mike and say with a straight face ... food stamps create jobs and give the biggest bang for the buck ...
Well, at best that person just feels entitled to the job in Washington, DC, (and scr*w the taxpayer), and at worst the person is not playing with a full deck of cards.
I find myself laughing every time I read articles like this one. First of all, the decision one makes at the voting booth is a visceral response which is propagated by a voter's emotional response to what is currently happening in politics today and its impact to their lives....Basically you are following your gut, unless of course you're too lazy and need others to direct you as this article seems to be implying by referencing New Hampshire...There's really no science here...People are pissed...Period...They feel deceived and are suffering and that frustration and anger is going to be reflected in their decision in November...
Don't know about the rest of the world, but I plan to voice my frustration with Obama and my disgust with Congress at every election, both federal and local, from this day forward. I'm one of the people who stood back and watched this mess take place. I accept responsibility and apologize for my attitude and lack of action in the past. I can hardly wait for the polls to open. You can count on me this time. I never dreamed it could get this bad ... not in my beautiful America. Now I plan to do everything possible to make it up to my grandchildren.
While this article is truly laughable, it's a good reminder that Independents, Republicans, Moderates and Conservatives alike need to go to the polls on November 2nd. Don't take anything for granted.
Thanks to the Democrats and Republicans, America cannot compete in a global market because of our trade policies. But, boy, can other countries flood our market with their crap (including bed bugs).
If your representative, Democrat or Republican, has been in office for more than 20 years, then they have participated under a majority rule at different times, to stop Americans from being able to compete in a global market.
I have absolutely NO doubt that the Republicans will win big in November.
I also have absolutely no doubt that the Democrates will then win bit in 2012, two years is not enough time for EITHER party to get a whole lot accomplished, especially when bills are passed that won't even take effect for 2 (or more) years.
ctdad has it right...people will vote for happening NOW. Anything going bad, get the other guy in...and two years from now when things are the same, they will get the original guys back in...
If the Refiblicans really do win big this fall, considering the group of clowns representing them, it may be the last hurrah for that party anytime in our lifetimes.
We are in this mess because of blind voter loyalty of people like you. Both the democrats and republicans have taken us to this point. I know by your posts that you have a strong dislike for anything right of center. Please explain to me how you can say that the republicans are blocking everything the democrats want to do right now when the democrats have such a strong majority in Congress. If you try to tell me that they actually need more control to stop the republicans, then why are the democrats not just as responsible for everything in the past because the republicans needed them to pass any regulations that have caused this mess?
We haven't seen anything like this mess since the last time one party had complete control. You are old enough to remember the Carter years aren't you?
...JH...."Haven't seen anything like this mess since the last time one party had complete control ?"....Really ?....You mean like Bush and A republican Congress from Jan. 2000 until Jan. 2007?...There are surprises in store my friend, the best thing democrats have going for them are republicans, the constant predictions of a massacre, name calling, labels and belittling, the arrogance of a party out of touch with mainstream America and who supports the status-quo as the cure all for this mess we are in.......Sorry my friend, been there, done that, and it didn't work......hold onto your socks....at best, republicans will pick up 22 House seats and 2 in the Senate......result, two more years of obstructionism
I don't know about you but I had some pretty good years from 2000 until 2007. It's what happened after the democrats told us in 2006 to elect them so that they could fix everything that we have gone down hill. The republicans did not have as strong a majority in those years as the democrats have had recently.
The only party out of touch with the mainstream is the democrat party in control today. Every poll about the health care reform said NO, even MSNBC polls. Every poll about the Nevada illegal immigrant law said it was a good idea. So what does the Obama administration do? And if you want to hear name calling and belittling and arrogance, just listen to our President. You know, the guy who was going to unite us. He is a failure and the democrat congress is a failure. See you at the voting booth.
Now, to start, you have to take all polling with a bit of skepticism, because it's not perfect. But when you analyze the broader macro trends going on, one thing becomes apparent. The Democrats are in trouble, and probably more so than at any time in recent history. Real Clear Politics is an balanced site which draws from both liberal and conservative sources to try and glean the truth from the spin out there, it's been able in the past to be a relatively accurate predictor of the public's mood.
They've currently got the Republicans picking up 35 seats comfortably in the House, while probably losing only 2 with relative certainty. There's about 39 in play as toss ups which are statistically too close to call. 37 of those 39 toss ups are currently Democrat seats. Of all those 39 toss ups, the Republicans only need to take 8, any 8 including the two currently held by Republicans, to take the majority in the House.
The Senate is a different picture. The Republicans are only poised to take 3 seats with relative certainty from the Democrats, while not likely to lose any of the ones they currently hold. 6 seats are toss ups, all of the Democrat seats. Still, in order to take control of the Senate, the Republicans would have to take 5 of the 6 toss up seats, and quite a few of them are in generally reliable liberal and Democratic areas. I don't think anything can be taken for granted, but the Republicans taking the House is possible but very much an outside long shot.
And that's just based on polling of those who have already made up their minds. Theres an awful lot of undecideds out there yet. Most of them tend to be political independents, and voters in the middle of the political spectrum. Independents are currently polling tilted away from the Democrats very heavily, they've been very turned off by the Progressive agenda. With previous electoral results as a benchmark, late breaking voters in this kind of climate tend to break down similar to those already trending one way or another, which means we can have a reasonable expectation it's undecideds are probably *not* going to tilt heavily towards the Democrats at the last moment. Then there's the enthusiasm gap, with the Democrats base frustrated with the pace of change and more apathetic than they'd like given the current climate that's so turned against them, and a GOP base that's fired up and looking for an electoral blood letting.
It does not add up to a pretty picture for the Democrats. Thus, they've been trying to manage expectations so they can say the GOP failed when they only picked up a huge amount instead of a massive amount. I doubt it will work as a messaging strategy, but they will try.
Anyway, I'm not a Republican, nor a Democrat. I'm a registered independent, pretty socially liberal, and pretty fiscally conservative, a moderate Libertarian by philosophy. I've voted for Democrats far more often than I have Republicans, including for Obama, Kerry, Gore, and Clinton. While I will be supporting some Republicans this election, I am not a partisan hack, not faithful to either party, and not inclined to trust either one of them. So take that into account when you read what I've got to say above.
The Democrats are in trouble. I'm not sure how bad, or what the degree and the scope will be, but the credible signs point to this election being anywhere from pretty terrible, to catastrophic to potentially apocalyptically bad for the Democrats.
....JH.....a lot of people did well from 02 til mid 07, just like they did during the high tech boom from 92 til 99, but neither boom were due in part to actions taken by democrat nor republican politicians. The1992 to 99 boom was due mostly to large break throughs in high tech, and the 02 to mid 07 boom was due mostly to lax credit, lending and ponzi schemes by financial institutions that eventually blew up in their face.
It does not matter what color you paint it, it is still what it is. A sustainable economy is mostly dependent upon consumers with expendable cash on hand and the ability of small business to grow and prosper. The worst thing is to create an environmet that encourages or promotes the out sourcing of jobs, or trade deficits that continually dimminishes America's stockpile of cash and wealth, we simply cannot keep trading $3 for $1 and hope to survive......The short story of why I am presently opposed to republicans, is they do not seem to see the problem with outsourcing of jobs, or the dangers globalized labor competition poses to America's standard of living......As things now stand, America's standard of living must be frozen until the rest of our trading partner's standard of living catches up, or the American standard of living must be lowered to match that of our trading partners....I find neither scenario acceptable or in the best interest of America maintaining it's super power status.....sorry for such a long post
....JPM......I'll stand by my predictions, see you after 11/3......I sure wish polls and so-called expert predictions were always correct, When I was still coaching, four times out of five my team went into the championship game as heavy favorites, and lost three, the other time we were the under-dog, and won....so much for polls and experts, there is no such thing as an 'expert'
Perhaps while President Obama is out begging for votes -- he should try shedding a tear, too.
Worked for Hillary (although in retrospect she was probably the better candidate anyway. but you can blame that all on Florida & Michigan for "jumping the gun" and the DNC for "punishing them" at Clinton's expense of course - until Obama finally had the delegates needed to sew up the primary. It would actually SAVE THE TAXPAYERS a whole boat load of money if the Political Classes of the TWO Parties would simply DESIGNATE their respective candidates for President in the 1st place -- well, that's a whole 'nother debate).
Don't worry Democrats -- the LOONEY TUNE liberals in Seattle, San Francisco, & Hollywood will carry the Senate seats in Washington & California, so unless the Republicans can flip West Virginia . . . that ship has already sailed.
However, it really is a HOOT that the SELF-DESIGNATED Tea Party Candidate in Nevada is competing for the WACKO vote against the GOP Sharron Angle! While the Dinosaur who is currently "Head of the Senate" still hasn't a clue.
AND in view of O'Donnell in Delaware & Alvin Greene in SC . . . it would seem as though we've all fallen down the rabbit hole with Alice.
SADLY THIS IS THE NEW WORLD VIEW OF AMERICA -- and we've long since sailed off the edge with Columbus.
Maybe, the electorate is finally realizing that the Teapublicons have a single-minded interest in destroying the country (read: a return to Bush policies)?
For the rational observer,there have been no real great surprises in the results of political races and primaries for years now. With an army of political professionals and the technology available to canvas and track the political mood of literally every single precinct, the overall results have been pretty much exactly what the political scientists have predicted, (with only the occasional, rare, isolated,or too close to call,exception). Even the actions of the partisans from one side or the other, such as the writers of this article, who are now desperately attempting to minimize the damage, are predictable.With the political climate as it now exists,even factoring in the standard "October Surprise", and the votes of the dead in corrupt, radical, progressive, hotbeds like Chicago, Seattle, and areas of California, with the results that have already been demonstrated throughout the primaries,(more than four million more conservative and moderate voters showing up to the polls than the socialists), and with what every legitimate poll has consistently shown so far concerning the mood of the electorate,all the extreme lefts anticipated manipulations should not be enough to significantly alter the expected outcomes of this election,....if it does, we, as a nation, have a problem.
The only way we will ever see change in our electoral system is for all of us to band together and promote the two constitutional amendment petitions at www.faircampaignreform.us. The first petition, calling for election/campaign finance reform, has as one of its sections a requirement that EVERY candidate, no matter for what office, must complete a binding contract as part of his/her ballot petition. That contract spells out his/her position on every possible issue that might come before them if elected. IF they renege on any single issue on that contract, we the voters could then take them to court for felony breach of contract. It also limits campaigns to just 60 days prior to ONE NATIONAL PRIMARY DAY to be held on the Tuesday eight weeks prior to the General Election. It also severely restricts campaign donations (individuals only--$200 single person/$500 family and maximum 60% of total individual donations expenditure by the candidate out-of-pocket) with NO corporate, union, non-profit, etc. donations allowed and NO third party campaigning for/against any candidate.
Only partially right, this is the year of disgust with the Democratic agenda. When elected in 2008, Democrats surmised they could do whatever they wanted and proceeded to ignor and stopped listening to the American people. Now they will pay the price for their arrogance. The lesson learned here is which ever side you are on, do not stop listening to the people who sent you to Washington.
Republicans didn't listen to Americans when it came to the public option. So Republicans if you get a chance to repeal and replace, you might want to put a public option in there.
Sorry Eric, you don't get to rewrite history. When the Senate was debating the public option over 60% of Americans did not want it. It those figures had been reversed, we would have the public option now. But the fact that at the present over 60% of Americans do not want any of the Health Reform Act and want it repealed. However, the left keeps telling itself that Health Reform is popular. They point to polls showing Americans says they want the Health Care system reformed. But Americans just don't want what the left is trying to shove down it's throat. Again, listen to what the people are saying, not what you want to hear. At present almost 70% of Americans do not want your public option. If it was as popular as you think, the Democrats would be running on it not running away from it.
Excellent points, Ray. And while we're debunking Eric's nonsense, the public option died while the Democrats still had a super-majority in the Senate and had long since decided to shut the Republicans out of virtually all negotiation or offering of amendment. The DEMOCRATS and the WHITE HOUSE killed the public option, in return for $115 billion in givebacks from the hospitals. JUST LIKE they killed importation of medicine in return for $80 billion in givebacks from pharma.
Eric, deal with it. The DEMOCRATS sold the American people's hopes of affordable, market based health care down the river with gladhanding and a laser-like focus on concentrating as much power in the government as possible.
..anti-trust.......I agree about the banding together part....but the proposition you speak of is too vague and subject to loopholes and interpretation...
The better way to return representative loyalty to constituents who elected them, limit campaign finances and curb lobbyist and outside influence over local elections is a state by state proposition to enact a people's 'ethics law'. A law that confines campaign fund raising to the 'particular' constituency (area) a 'particular' public elected office is empowered to represent in an official capacity in whatever legislated body.....In other words, " If you are not my representative, and are not empowered to represent me in an official capacity, you cannot accept campaign contributions from me."....A representative is a representative, whether at the local level, state, national or court of law, loyalty means everything
Too vague and full of loopholes? Where is the vagueness and what are the loopholes? If you are referring to the "local funding only" for Representatives in your response, OK, but this amendment also concerns the Senate and Presidential races as well. Since all funding, other than national party, is restricted to individuals only, I bet that for MOST Representatives, the funding will be primarily from their own district under this amendment.....also the fact that the limits have been drastically cut to $200 for an individual and $500 for a family living in the same household.
Did you even go to the site and read the full text of the amendment before posting your response?
Been saying it for months now................don't count your Teabaggers before they're hatched. People are wise to the pollsters. Do the responders tell the truth, or do they just give the answer that someone wants to hear, and then hang up and say, ha ha, the dummy thinks I told him the truth!You know that warm glow you get inside when you know that you fooled someone taking a political poll. Please read about the election between Truman and Dewey. Vote for the best candidate, not for who's ahead in the polls:
Campaigns have become one more installment in reality TV. The more outrages and controversial, the more entertaining. Witches, Cosmopolitan centerfolds, Trump-esque billionaires. If you think the campaign is entertaining, wait till these guys get into office. Great TV over a cup of tea. I guess that must be why Oprah is retiring. She can't compete!
I vote the issues this time .... that's a promise. For the Democrats who voted with Obama on his socialist control programs .... you're on my list. You're out. Could care less about your party, your color, or your religion. Never have. This country overwhelmingly elected a black President, and it enrages me that anyone who now disagrees with his Marxist socialist agenda and blatant arrogance is labeled a racist. I didn't vote for him because he was black, and I assure you I won't vote for him or the radicals behind him in spite of it. To use the race card is only proof of your panic and desperation. Campaign on the issues and stop trying to divide our nation!
frag, they didn't have the scientific polling 60 years ago which they have today. So keep believing that every poll out there is wrong. Most of them are well beyond the margin of error. So keep believing the line you are spinning, reality hits soon.
Eric Are the polls tightening up or are your referring to the ABC pols where they polled twice as many dems than reps. What a joke, is that what you call polling.
Take a good long hard look at the Poll results of recent years.....how often did anyone say the (day after)...SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE! Get real.....it is what is and it will manifest itself on Tuesday, November 2nd so deal with it!
No, they don't say "surprise, surprise". They scream "ACORN" and "VOTER FRAUD". The polls are often wrong but wrong-headed people (such as yourself, apparently) refuse to believe it.
I should also add, one reason why the polls are even more suspect than usual, is that many people believe the real problem in America is the Media itself. Every time a news photographer gets hit in the nose with his own camera, most people think............gee I wish I could have done that, serves him right; and why? They have no respect.
Before the anti-trust laws were tossed in this country, there were laws preventing a controlling financial interest in multiple news media outlets... Now that Rupert Murdoch owns almost everything, there's no such thing as "news" being reported. The media has become a source of propaganda that is continually "spun" for profit and/or ratings. The general public has become aware of it...and most intelligent, objective adults can see through it. It saves lots of $$ on the electric bill when you refuse to watch... Similar to bank credit cards, the American public is becoming empowered by their refusal to be swayed by the pundits... When the audiences are reduced as significantly as the credit card use, maybe they'll get the message. WE DON'T NEED YOU TO DICTATE YOUR OPINIONS. WE ARE CAPABLE AND INTELLIGENT ENOUGH TO FORM OUR OWN OPINIONS AND MAKE WISE CHOICES BASED ON THE FACTS. IF YOU DON'T SUPPLY UNTARNISHED FACTS AND INFORMATION ABOUT THE DAY'S NEWS, WE'LL FIND IT ELSEWHERE.
Like everything else, the polls and predictions about the upcoming elections are opinions based on history that is no longer relevant in such a radically changing environment and society that predictions are a waste of time and energy.
The negative ads being run are so distasteful that I have ordered enough movies to avoid watching TV for the next month... So they're wasting their money as far as I'm concerned.
frag, your problem is this isn't one or two polls. All the polls are saying the same thing. So if you believe the polls are in error, you have to believe all the polls made the same type of error resulting in nearly the same conclusion. Talk about conspiracy theories, one will endeavor to believe anything but reality
FINALLY! A sober, realistic assessment of the 2010 landscape. Yes, Democrats will lose seats - they picked up a LOT on '06 and '08, so they'll lose some. But it's not going to be this "tidal wave" many on the right are hoping for, and the press seems to be cheerleading at the moment.
At least someone has written something that accurately reflects what's happening, and that frankly, no one really knows what WILL happen.
Tired of all the lies from both parties. Tired of the spin....
Maybe if some of these dirtbags actually stepped up and took the blame for their failures and then worked hard to correct them, they might earn more respect.
Maybe if Barney Frank and his Fannie/Freddie buddies said, "Yeah we missed it on that, but here's legislation which will prevent it from happening again"....maybe that might just show he has a spine. But instead they see what went wrong, spin it to be someone ELSE'S fault and even better....they KEEP DOING WHAT FAILED!!!!
The new legislation for financial reform does not even target Fannie and Freddie. How much sense does that make?
I know America has to have smart people who can solve these problems logically. WHERE ARE THEY?
By the 2012 election, the GOP must have a large, veto proof majority to enable the country to repeal the Obama Legacy. I am not a fan of the GOP by a long shot, but Obama's goal of an entitlement nation with the government controlling major industries must be snuffed before "free enterprise" is lost to our economy and country. Nancy Pelosi states that, to paraphrase, "the best way to get our country going again economically is to increase the number of people on food stamps and on unemployment insurance. " Jobs, jobs, jobs. Bust the Unions once and for all and get America working again.
"Free enterprise"? We haven't had that for over a century, thank god. We don't need another "robber baron" era, but the GOP is sure trying to establish one once again. Busting unions won't get America working again, simply because even the non-union workers want the same wages and benefits. Corporations selling globally (which is most corporations of any size any more) are all taking their production to the source of cheapest labor and growing markets. The US market has been sliding for the past two decades compared to other parts of the world. That is why we have lost US jobs for the past four years. As American wage earning drops and prices continue to rise, the purchasing power also drops exponentially. THAT is what caused this recession, along with deregulation, unfunded tax cuts, limited federal staff to do the oversight it has been held responsible for, etc. The GOP especially, and the Dems as well, are responsible for America's downturn. If we don't start spending money on infrastructure, education, and other jobs creating areas of need, this country will soon become a third world nation, not the world leader we have been for so long.
Mr. and Mrs Korean legal immigrant come here to NYC and buy a push cart. They go to the Fulton street fish market and buy inexpensive fish that they will trim then bread, spice and deep fry on their cart. After a long day, they go home to a small, cramped apartment and have the mornings trimmings for dinner. after a couple of years of working hard and SAVING their money, they open a small "hole in the wall" restaurant and lease their cart to a relative. Having saved money, they start a family. The restaurant grows into larger accommodations. The children do very well at school, as that's what their parents expect and demand of them. These are clients of mine, and they are not alone. They don't adhere to YOUR moronic outlook. They just DO IT!
The country would be much better off if people grew to realize, nobody owes you a damn thing! And then worked hard to provide for themselves and family.
"Obama's goal of an entitlement nation with the government controlling major industries"
Huh? What in the world are you talking about? Another example of right wing hysteria. He passed a bill to try and make health insurance more affordable and available to all Americans. He bailed out the domestic auto industry and the banks to prevent an economic collapse. Why do Republicans want to have a depression? This is the worst economic recession since the 1929. How fast do you think he should have "fixed" it? 6 months? Republicans with the same tired rhetoric they've been spewing since the 80s. We've tried your way and our standard of living is dropping while the CEOs get richer.
Ver immpresive up-by-the-bootstraps story Dahly. They may not feel like it but they are living the American dream. And I bet that when good fortune smiles on them, that they really appreciate it. God bless them.
Sam, the Obama Health Care Legislation is designed to destroy/eliminate the private Health Insurance industry. They can not meet the requirements and turn a profit. It wass just 4% as of 2009. The Federal government will be the sole provider of health care, by design. All those evil HC insurance employees will make Pelosi happy as they will expand the food stamp and unemployment insurance entitlement programs. Career politicians, GOP/Dems can just go screw themselves.
Dahly. So the answer is to just leave millions of families uninsured and to deny coverage to people that need it the most. Typical of conservatives, "I got mine, so screw everyone else". "We'd like for everyone to live, but we just can't afford it."
Does anyone think that after November, the Democrats will have enough of anything in Congress to pass any additional health care legislation. At the best, they will be fighting a battle against defunding the Health Reform legislation. The next Republican drive will be to repeal the legislation. The next two years will be spent on both defunding and repeal. This will be a major issue in 2012. Right now, there are between 8-10 Democratic senator who would probably vote to repeal. With between 58-64% of Americans for repeal in the polls, Democrats will be on the defense until 2012. If public opinion continues in the same direction and unemployment is at 8% or more, the Dems will find it very difficult to hold off this trend. Expect, in 2011, the Democrats to start a drive to "fix" some of the problems with this legislation. Remember a large portion of Democratic Congressmen had not read this bill before voting on it. Many have been alarmed at some of the provisions of it.
Please indicate where you got the repeal percentages. From what I have seen and read, 56% are in favor of the Health Care Reform Act. If you tell me you got those facts from Fox, try another source.
Another attempt by this Liberal rag to keep up Democrat spirits....this election will be a blood bath for Dems and they already know this..it is going to be a stone cold body slam...so all of you Marxist Liberals brace yourself and face reality...
Another attempt by this Liberal rag to keep up Democrat spirits....this election will be a blood bath for Dems and they already know this..it is going to be a stone cold body slam...so all of you Marxist Liberals brace yourself and face reality...
Now that you're done, are you going to also gin up the usual claim that "libs" start grenade-trolling, throwing rocks, calling names and generally asking for trouble, while polite, soft-spoken conservatives like yourself just hunker down and weather the attack?
sam, but in 2008 the polls all showed Obama winning. This time they are showing a big GOP win. So the polls were right in 2008 but they are all wrong now?
A very interesting article and some very interesting spin being generated in response. Actually, I think the article is accurate. As the only person posting so far who had actually RUN two successful political campaigns (both GOP by the way) and depended heavily on polls, it all depends on the pollster. The polling methodology is what counts, as well as the sample and how it was chosen.
We can yell at each other all day about which side is going to win and which polls are correct, but in the end, NONE of us really know what we're talking about because we don't know the pollsters, their methods or their samples.
I will say this, in my experience, if a person takes the time to respond to a polling call in the evening they generally answer truthfully unless there is something about the call that causes them concern. I don't believe there is a wholesale conspiracy to feed bad information to the pollster.
I do believe, and I have responded to several, that pollsters use poorly worded polling questioned and poorly trained people making the calls. All that can dramatically affect the results of your poll.
So, calm down everybody. November 2nd will be what it will be, polls be damned.
My personal opinion, tinged with hope, is that the American people will listen to the facts and not the propaganda and they will make wise decisions. I believe the GOP will take a few seats. I also beleive they will lose a few seats based on the poor quality of some of their candidates. I do not think we will see a tidal wave of turn over in the House or the Senate. At least I hope not.
But, as I said before, what will be, will be on November 2nd. We are almost to the point in the campaign when ma and pa voter have made up their minds and there is nothing we could do short of a major scandal to change their minds. So, save you breath, get out and vote and we'll all known the end of the story on November 3rd.
Have a nice weekend everybody. And I mean, everybody.
I like your very insightful view. I have one comment: I was polled and told that I would need to answer 10 questions and after they asked my party affiliation ( I am a proud Democrat), the pollster hastily hung up. So much for polls.
That is the problem with all polls, Joe. The pollster firms rig the questions, are not truly unbiased in their samplings (nor are they truly "random"), and the number interviewed is always such an infinitesimally small number of the population that there is no way ANY poll is truly representational of the general population.
When we accept how Republicans frame the debate, we end up with the situation we have now where Health Care reform and Wall Street reform are seen negatively.
We need to lead with our positive message and not follow by responding to Republican talking points.
Everyone believes that healthcare needed reform (and still does). There were about 14 points that both parties were in complete agreement on over health care. If those were crafted into a bill and passed, that would have been a great start. The other issues should have gone to a bi-partisan committee for as long as necessary and added as agreed upon.
Thats the way our government is supposed to work. This administration is completely arrogant and now they are going to pay the piper.
Why is it that only the Democrats have to be "bi-partisan", while Republicans march in lock step opposition to anything the Democrats try? If the dems try to pass legislation to help veterans, the Republicans vote no, just out of spite. It's ridiculous. To think that our economic situation would be better under Republicans is insane. No to Wall Street reform. No to extended unemployment benefits. No to minimum wage hikes. No to anything that benefits the real people instead of their corporate masters.
Sam, are you one of the just 53% of wage earners who actually pay Federal Income Tax, after filing? Why do the other 47% not just get a free ride, but ENTITLEMENTS? Are some too lazy, stupid or just unmotivated because Mommy Obama will take care of them?
Dahly, what percentage of Americans didn't pay income tax during the 8 years of Bush? Do you know how low your income has to be to be exempt from income tax? Let's let them all die in the gutter. What other parts of civilzation do want to get rid of?
I have a good assignment for you. Why don't you do some research and see when it became 47% who don't pay income taxes? You will quickly find it wasn't always that way. Part of it was due to changes in the tax code over the past 10 years, including the Bush tax cuts. Part of it is also due to the stimulus. "The 47 percent number is not wrong. The stimulus programs of the last two years — the first one signed by President George W. Bush, the second and larger one by President Obama — have increased the number of households that receive enough of a tax credit to wipe out their federal income tax liability." http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html
And just because someone doesn't pay income tax does not mean they don't pay taxes.
Regardless of party, when someone votes "no" on a bill, that "no" may not be because of the main issue itself, which may have been a noble cause, but what was attached to it. Frankly, the word "comprehensive" scares the crap out of me. If Congress is to ever get anything done on behalf of the American people, they should put an end to this "2,000 pages that nobody has read" crap and pass small bills individually. THAT would be working for America. We all have common ground, but that common ground gets lost in the pork and entitlements.
There's been a great deal of attention brought to the page count of legislation. This is nothing new.
My opinion is that this only became a "focus of outrage" because as the GOP sought to derail HCR, they seized on anything that would look and sound "extreme" to the average voter... knowing that the average voter isn't going to take the time to see if that really means anything or not.
A decade ago, when Phil Gramm (R-TX) wasn't able to get "Commodities Futures Modernization" legislation passed on its own merits (because it had none), he finally attached it as a rider to an 11,000 page end-of-year omnibus finance bill. Apparently no one read that either, because it passed. The result? The "Enron Loophole", $4/gal gasoline, and a few other similar gifts to the public at large.
Did you catch that? 11,000 pages? So don't you wonder why some patriotic GOP legislator didn't wave that number around then?
There are several articles on the Web that address this Enormous Issue. One is here:
And here's the meat of that story, for your convenience. Read, and see if you still think that "2000 page" deal is as unusual as you've been led to believe.
Over the last several decades, the number of bills passed by Congress has declined: In 1948, Congress passed 906 bills. In 2006, it passed only 482. At the same time, the total number of pages of legislation has gone up from slightly more than 2,000 pages in 1948 to more than 7,000 pages in 2006. (The average bill length increased over the same period from 2.5 pages to 15.2 pages.)
Bills are getting longer because they're getting harder to pass. Increased partisanship over the years has meant that the minority party is willing to do anything it can to block legislation—adding amendments, filibustering, or otherwise stalling the lawmaking process. As a result, the majority party feels the need to pack as much meat into a bill as it can—otherwise, the provisions might never get through. Another factor is that the federal government keeps expanding. Federal spending was about $2.7 trillion in 2007. That's up from $92 billion 50 years ago. And as new legislation is introduced, past laws need to be updated. The result: more pages.
All wage earners (whose wages are reported) pay taxes through the various automatic tax withholdings. Where that number of "non-taxpayers" comes from is actually the number of taxpayers whose credits/deductions at the end of the year actually far outweigh their liabilities as tomilvento partially pointed out. There are probably just as many wealthy who get total tax write-offs and refunds as there are "poor" workers. Just because a person falls below the tax liability point at the end of the year does NOT mean that they haven't paid income taxes. It just means that they get back those taxes that they did pay in during the year, or at least a portion of them.
The polls are based on statistical analysis. This is an actual science and it is accurate within the parameters stated (i.e., accurate to within + or - 1.5%) Their accuracy depends on their methodology and the true randomness of their sampling, If a poll manager wanted their results to be skewed either way, then all he need do is mess with the sampling method, and then not mention that this poll was taken say...in an all black neighborhood, or, this sample was taken from people having their BMW's serviced. Neither a fair random sample.
Another liberal "journalist" hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG!! Well cheer up pal. After all, any really CLOSE races are practically guaranteed to go to the democrat, given your professionalism in voter fraud and contest rigging. So at least, you have ONE thing to look forward to--those thousands of ballots suddenly discovered in the trunks of cars!!!!
Funny -- "Another liberal "journalist" hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG." reminds me of 2008 and 2006 when all those conservative "journalist" were hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG!! The reality is most people only believe in polls when polls tell them what they want to hear.
Reminds me of the phrase: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
One can make what you wish from polls, it just depends upon whom you call or poll, how you determine whom you poll, what questions are asked, how you phrase the questions, and then what you report. Raw data can interpreted in every possible fashion, to suit your objective.
Thanks, Skip N. from OK City... great post.
I had planned on talking at some length about the media and the Washington politicians and lobbyists, but I will keep it short... it's not how much money is generated and spent. It is how many votes you can produce on election day. Can tons of cash from a few wealthy sources make a difference in the number of votes cast? Can the media really make a difference in how they frame the discussions and influence voters? I am doubtful of either actually being completely true each and every time. When it all comes down to the actual ballot, voters will vote with their conscience and level of comfort with the candidates. Lies in elections need to be challenged in the courts as that is the only way which we can see the facts being the truth used in all campaigns. Limitations on the amount of money used in each and every campaign is necessary to allow an equal and level playing field and to allow people other than the connected or the wealthy to run for office and have a chance of winning. Remember, it's all about the ideas espoused by the candidates.
I've already voted in Ohio's early voting program and I hope everyone will take the time to exercise their right to vote in this election. It is important to be heard.
In the past 19 months I have seen enough filibustering, lie calling, no voting, foot stomping from the Republicans in congress, that I couldn't ever think of voting for another republican anytime soon. They have no Ideas, and they stop any idea that comes up.
They have no vision for the USA at this time. They have no solutions. They create more problems for our citizens by blocking jobs, lending, and support for small businesses in this economy. It is unbelievable how they stopped people from getting help for unemployment. I can't believe their pompous arrogant behavior when we need every one working for the same home team. They have shown that they are not team players.
The rest of the world is laughing at us while manipulating the Repubs one way then the other. The best thing to happen for the Dems is the Tea Party crowd scraping off the old Repub guard one by one. They don't like them either! They see their weakness for cash and favors has blinded them to the facts, but they(Tea Party) like cash and favors too! So divide and conquer dems. It is in our hands to win this race.
Just to add to your comment. I think the negative campaign ads have just about ended their usefulness. People have seen so much of them that they have gotten wise to how they work. This has undermined their effectiveness and actually have a negative "backfire effect on the candidate who paid for the ad.
Republicans are better informed about political issues than blacks, Hispanics, and young people.
"Big-city liberals and their blogging buddies love to paint Tea Partiers as yokels with incoherent candidates and language-mauling signs," began Charles Blow's column Saturday.
"The unpleasant fact that these liberals rarely mention, and may not know, is that large swaths of the Democratic base, groups they need to vote in droves next month - blacks, Hispanics and young people - are far less civically literate than their conservative counterparts."
According to a poll released this week by the Pew Research Center, 42 percent of blacks, 42 percent of Hispanics and 35 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 years old don't even know that Democrats have a majority in the House? (Only 71 percent of Democrats overall knew that Democrats had a majority in the House. By comparison, 82 percent of Republicans knew it.)
In the Pew poll, 64 percent of Hispanics, 51 percent of young adults and 45 percent of blacks could not name Biden as the vice president. (Only 35 percent of Republicans got it wrong.)
Republicans don't belive in Biology, Geology, or Astronomy. They think the earth was created in 6 days 6000 years ago and that evil, liberal, scientists have created mice with "fully functioning human brains". They want to get rid of social security, medicare, and medicade, the EPA and the Department of Education, and privatize the Veterans administration. They want to give insurace companies back the right to deny and limit coverage. They don't want the bailed out bankers to pay taxes on their obscene bonuses. They think it's good if your job is shipped to China or India and want to give tax breaks to the companies that do it.
Sam, are you one of the just 53% of wage earners who actually pay Federal Income Tax, after filing? Why do the other 47% not just get a free ride, but ENTITLEMENTS? Are some too lazy, stupid or just unmotivated because Mommy Obama will take care it.
Yes, I pay taxes. What you should be worried about is the fact that 47% of Americans earn an income so low, it's exempt from income tax. But I guess you think that a family of four who subists on minimum wage (which I'm sure you think is too high and should be eliminated altogether) should pay the same tax rate as the millionares.
I believe in a smaller, limited government, whose representatives actually represent the majority of people in their districts. I do not believe in the GOP or the Democratic parties. I believe in very limited social services, reserved for the mentally and physically incapable. I believe if you are to tax anyone, you tax everyone who earns a wage. Most of all, I believe in Self Responsibility as no one owes anyone else a damn thing. I volunteer 5-10 hours each and every week for the past 30 years, donate greater than 10% of my earnings to Charity and challenge YOU to do likewise.
"Republicans are better informed about political issues than blacks, Hispanics, and young people."
Interesting quote implies that blacks, Hispanics and young people aren't Republicans.
At least, if they are smart, they aren't Republicans. Why should anyone, in the lower or middle class vote to cut their own throat, by voting for a Republican?
I think you'll be happier in Mexico. Small, weak, central government, no social safety nets, no social security, medicare, medicade, no government health plan. They only pave the roads on the "good" side of town. It's perfect for you. I'll be there in November. I'm anxious to see if we can start getting rid of those scientists who are "creating mice with fully functioning human brains". I'm sure that will get tea partiers to vote for conservatives because "mice with fully functioning human brains" is even scarier than gay, muslims, burning American flags.
It goes a lot lot deeper than that...if you watched the exit interviews with Obama voters in 2008 you know what I mean...these folks are just big steaming wads of stupidity. When the Dems bus in loads of illiterates and then cheat the system by registering illegals, felons,dead people, etc you can see how they corrupt the entire process.
In short, Democrats are basically to ignorant to vote and it wouldn't be a bad idea to sterilize most of them as they leave the voting booth to insure the future of the country.
It is comments such as yours (and there are many) that cause me to loathe anything Republican. Say anything, call them any name imaginable, lower the opposition to the level of dirt, discredit the Pres. for wearing blue socks on Tues, no to everything presented by the Democrats. Who should be sterilized? You sure have guts. I laugh at tv ads by Republicans. "I'll bring jobs back" And they all stress that point. How in hell are they going to do any better than Democrats? Corporations in their greed send jobs overseas in order to satisfy investors and to increase profits. I say tax the products they send back into the US so heavily it becomes more profitable to make those products here. Republicans won't do this. Well, at least we still have GM and Chrysler.
I love articles like this one. The polls are are wrong and the Dems will not lose more than 3 or 4 seats. If i were going to vote for the Dems, i would just stay home on November 2nd. After all, the Tea Party is no big deal, and wont last more than a month or two.
Well, those are two of the most blatantly pathetic statements I've ever seen. Are you seriously trying to get people to stay home on election day? Is that the only way you're going to win anything?
January 2006 the democrats took over complete congressional control and power of the country. The democrats have failed to manage the economy, the war in Afghanistan, immigration and the social ills of our country and its time to throw them out of office replacing them with people than can do the job.
But the only people you have to do that with are Republicans, and they are worse. Tea Party candidates are looking like plants from the Dems inasmuch as where they are running for the Republican spots they are falling falling falling in the polls, and Dems will either hold or pick up those seats.
"January 2006 the democrats took over complete congressional control and power of the country......"
Because the Republicans got thrown out for screwing things up so badly, remember that part? Yet, you give them a bye on the previous SIX years of Republican control and blame EVERYTHING on TWO years of Democratic control. The party of no brains.
Afghanistan: This is the war the Republicans abandoned because they were convinced that Saddam was flying one of the planes on 9/11. Republicans turned the hunt for Bin Ladin over to the Afghan militias because we were too busy trying to convince the world that Saddam was going to attack us with "nukular" weapons. The result? Bin Ladin and the Taliban escaped into Pakistan where they have destablized that government and continue to carry out attacks on U.S. interests. Thank you W and all you fisal conservatives for saving us from terrorism, yeah right.
...Bighorn....."replace democrats with people who can do the job?".....now whom would that be ? ....The same people who drove this bus off the cliff, gave us a senseless war in Iraq, passed half a dozen free trade agreements that sent (8) million American manufacturing jobs abroad and let America be overrun by 14 million illegal immigrants so the rich could exploit cheap labor and drive down American workers bargaining power?.......surely you do not mean those people, or did you have someone else in mind
What I'm reading here is no defense of the actions the Democrats have taken, but rather a condemnation of the actions taken by the Republicans prior as some sort of weak justification for the unpopularity and failure of the actions taken by the Democrats.
Really? Is that what we're doing now, just voting in the party that has had the LEAST amount of time to screw things up lately, so everything is fair? The Republicans got six years to gum up the works, therefore the Democrats should get six years, too?
I don't think so. But there is one thing that I am personally grateful to the Obama - and Bush - administrations for:
And that is waking the people of this country the hell up. After a full decade of malfeasance on the part of both parties, people are finally paying attention.
...Pragmatic......incorrect....most people are not paying attention, it has nothing to do with time on the job either. If I had my choice I would dump the majority of both parties in Congress, disband national party committees and make elections open to all comers. We have to dispose of this 'us against them' mentality, this extremism of both the left and right that dominates American politics, and the mindset we are always left with a choice between the lesser of the evils.....At this point, though weak in nature, I do see some progress grudgingly being made by Obama despite an obstructionist republican party and a democratic Congress that is lacking backbone....but progress nonetheless
What I'm reading here is no defense of the actions the Republicans have taken, but rather a condemnation of the actions taken by the Democrats prior as some sort of weak justification for the unpopularity and failure of the actions taken by the Republicans.
Exactly what did the Republicans do a good job on that the electorate overlooked in 2006 and 2008?
Uh, Sam? The Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress in the '06 elections. Pay attention.
Ellis -
The progress is in the wrong direction in the opinion millions of people in this country. I don't credit Obama and the Democrats for ignoring that, nor do I buy into your "obstructionist" nonsense. Even Obama recognized, there are legitimate disagreements between the parties and this country was NOT founded on the concept of the majority running roughshod over the minority.
I have no use for either party anymore either, but have even LESS use for a majority that takes control of both houses and the executive and thinks that gives them the right to do whatever the hell they want with NO input allowed from the minority - and to claim otherwise is to lie, Ellis. The Republicans had dug in their heels, but they were shut out from square one when Obama say, "We won, we're not doing that." in April '09.
Don't try to tell me, the Republicans killed the health care bill. The Democrats and Obama killed that bill all by themselves - then passed it anyway. They killed the public option, in a $155 billion trade-off with the hospitals. They killed less expensive medicine, in an $80 billion deal with pharma.
They blocked the elected representatives of 40% of the population of this country from a meeting that the union bosses, representing only 13% and NOT elected officials were allowed to attend.
Do you want to try again, defending the behavior of Obama and the Democrats? I suppose now you're going to be all, Well! The Republicans did this and that and the other thing from '00 to '06!!!!!! And to that I say, yea, and that's why THEY got thrown the hell out, AND nothing they did - NOTHING - will screw as many people in this country as badly as that health scare deform bill will.
It's as bad as anything EVER pulled by the Republicans, and in many ways worse, because 53% of the people in this country voted for Obama to change this kind of crap.
And THAT's why it's over for them. Checks and balances need to be restored, per force.
..Pragmatic.. I agree the Health care bill turned out to be an Albatross that never should have been passed or signed.....But how do you defend republicans opposition to reform of how financial institutions and Wall street conducts business or constant opposition to extending unemployment benifits, opposition to limits on predatory credit card interest rates or support of extending tax cuts for the upper 2% which do not create more than 6% of jobs, not counting government, small business creates 70% of jobs, and none of them create anything unless the consumer has jobs, expendable cash on hand and is purchasing products other than necessities....And if you think privatization is the cure all. What do you think of the report private security contractors in Afganistan are funneling money and arms to the warlords (ie) Taliban...Or private contractors are the ones making it possible for 14 million or more illegal immigrants to survive and prosper in America ?
..Bighorn and Pragmatic.....A little truth and a little less spin would help....fact !....Democrats did not have control of Congress for one day of 2006, democrats took the reins in January of 2007, just before the bottom fell out of the economy and republicans ran out the back door.....Now their back knocking, promising to do a better job if they are let back in, promises, promises.......Fool me once.......well, you know how the rest of the saying goes
Speaking of spin, Ellis. You're doing nothing but spinning, on left-wing talking points. There is a whole hell of a lot more to ALL of those issues than just talking points.
The credit card reform bill is nothing more than trying to have government act as nanny and alleviate personal responsibility from the consumer. The negative "unintended consequences" for the majority once again outweighed the benefits for the minority who probably should NOT get credit in the first place since they can't handle it.
The Republicans DIDN'T oppose Wall Street reform, they opposed some part of it and wanted to fine-tune it. As has been typical, the Democrats decided to frame this as the Republicans being the party of NO, on the side of Wall Street. The final bill ends up codifying TBTF, blocking entry into the financial industry to all but the 5-7 TBTF entities who are even BIGGER than they were in '08 thanks to government largesse via very high capital requirements, and creating another massive government bureauocracy that will eventually wind up costing consumers who can manage their own affairs freedom of choice. Most importantly, the Democrats refused to deal with Fannie & Freddie, claiming that needed separate action. That has NOT been taken, because they WANT to continue the practices of getting people who can't afford homes into them, anyway. It's social engineering, at its worst.
RE, taxes. It's class warfare at it's most base level and it's disgusting. What you people aren't understanding is that millions of people who aren't "wealthy" hope to be wealthy some day, and not be punished for it. You also don't seem to get that all money earned is NOT the property of the government, who can then decide how much they let us keep.
Aside from that, the tax cuts for the "wealthy" are less than 1/4 the value of the tax cuts for the middle class. And Keynesian economics, which this administration seems to be trying to use, warns AGAINST raising taxes during economic downturns. The problem isn't revenue, Ellis. The problem is spending.
RE: Privatization. I didn't even mention that, but I assume you mean the LIES Obama and the Democrats are telling regarding privatizing SS to demonize the Republicans?
RE: military contractors. Do you know WHY we use them? Because after the Cold War ended, we downscaled our military. They've been in use since the Clinton administration, and are STILL in use. Now if you want to argue that we shouldn't engage in military activity beyond what our own military can handle, or that we shouldn't have 2,000 military installations worldwide - I'd agree with you completely. But you're raging against a long-standing policy, that Obama continues. I'm not sure how that ends up entirely in the laps of the Republicans, and if it's a bad policy, it's just as much the responsbility of the Democrats.
Re: illegal immigration. I'm all for prosecuting employers who KNOWINGLY hire illegal aliens. I fully support the recent Obama administration crack-down on illegal alien criminals. I also fully support a reasonable path to citizenship that includes learning English, back taxes and fines - AFTER the borders and ports are secure. So do many Republicans AND Democrats.
Once again, however, this is going to get screwed up - by potentially BOTH parties, because of the insistence upon COMPREHENSIVE immigration reform to maintain voting blocks - that's the ONLY reason. Once again, the Democrats will refuse to do anything incremental, dealing with one aspect of the problem at a time, starting first with port and border security and going from there. They're going to insist on doing another 2,000 page bill that no one has read much less completely understands, phased over 10 years, with an unknown, moving target pricetag.
And finally, do you really want to split hairs about the dates of power changes? Most people refer to change in leadership as having happened in the year the election took place. Yes, to be very specific, Bush and his Republican no-necks didn't take office until Jan. 2001, and the Democratic no-necks didn't take office until Jan. 2007. Obama didn't take office until Jan. '09.
And the Republicans that will take over the House won't do so until Jan. 2011, which is when recovery truly begins in this country because checks and balances will have been restored.
This country is not well served when one party holds power - and it doesn't matter which party. Carter's administration, the first two years of Clinton, six years of Bush and two years of Obama are proof.
The only certainty in politics is that nothing is certain. I am a retired journalist, and six decades of observation have convinced me that when the only information on which the pundits can rely is the opinion of other people, they are walking on quicksand, and they usually know it but choose to ignore it anyway, which is a foolish thing to do. A great many people, in my experience, say one thing for months and months and then at the last minute do just the opposite. People may intend to act a certain way, even for years, but when the time comes to act, they do something entirely different because the conditions they envisioned ahead of time are nothing like what they expected, and so they change course. People are unpredictable, politics are unpredictable. So why waste so much time and energy trying to predict what is going to happen when it is so much more interesting to analyze what did happen after the fact. The pundits do this because they want to appear to be much wiser than they actually are, which is an egotistical problem that is not journalism. It would change the entire political landscape if they were to just get out of the guessing-game business altogether and ween themselves off of the polls they so heavily rely on. Every voter in America can be a pre-election armchair "guesspert" but only the final election results are actual facts, and these facts have overturned "esteemed" political wisdom and "premiere" political analysts and pundits so many times, one would think they would have learned long ago to stop it, but it gets to be addictive like a drug, feeding their egos, not their brains, and they foolishly keep plowing on in spite of their demonstrated stupidity. It is this inability to perceive their stupidity that is the pundits' greatest enemy.
Yeah Right!
Left-wing panic attack. Spin it anyway you want, the rinse cycle is about to run.
The Democratic and Republican Party are merely the liberal and conservative wings of the same party (who are financed and controlled by wall-street and the banks). They only care about increasing their wealth, retaining their power and don't give a crap about the average working American. Nothing will change until we have a viable third party (which they will never allow). I say vote them both out!!
This article was funny. Thanks for the good laugh early on a Friday morning!! The people of this great nation are comin... whether the leftist media likes it or not!
I sense a touch of 'wishful thinking' on the part of the author of this article.
Only a "touch" of desperation? I see whole scale spin and wishfull thinking. The Congress will look quite different in a few months. Thankfully.
"Pseudo-certainty"
_____________________________________________________________________________
Progressive democrats consistently relied upon pseudo-communism for economic policy and pseudo-falsified data for environmental policy
Why should they question pseudo-anything now?
I think we have to stop listening to Republicans. They deliberately waste our time. When we respond to their foolishness, we are accepting how they have "framed" the debate. They get us off track and away from reality.
For example, when we respond to Obama's citizenship, we are NOT talking about real issues. Like jobs, the economy, consumer protection...
Wow, the media blitz is in full swing this morning. There are at least four articles on the MSN homepage postulating that the Dems might not get whipped as badly as it appears. Too bad for the Dems: the media articles are wishful thinking; the ass-kicking on Nov 2nd is going to be real.
Well two out of three ain't bad. The author described the Press and the Democrats properly.
and to me you all sound like exactly what you are saying we sound like. it sounds like you have wishful thinking that you will win all the seats. i will just say that i don't need to make predictions as those are worth about as much as a dog fart.
Pssst please let me in on the big secret. You people are here every day, commenting on the liberal bias of MSNBC. Yet you hate liberals and you hate MSNBC. So why are you here? Is this trash talk before the big game on November 2nd? Do you have secret orders to preach to those of us who are misinformed? Is there some other reason that compels you here everyday?
My wish is that EVERY election from now until eternity turns polls on their head for both Democrats and Republicans.
When a politician can stand at the mike and say with a straight face ... food stamps create jobs and give the biggest bang for the buck ...
Well, at best that person just feels entitled to the job in Washington, DC, (and scr*w the taxpayer), and at worst the person is not playing with a full deck of cards.
Either way, ALWAYS VOTE!
I find myself laughing every time I read articles like this one. First of all, the decision one makes at the voting booth is a visceral response which is propagated by a voter's emotional response to what is currently happening in politics today and its impact to their lives....Basically you are following your gut, unless of course you're too lazy and need others to direct you as this article seems to be implying by referencing New Hampshire...There's really no science here...People are pissed...Period...They feel deceived and are suffering and that frustration and anger is going to be reflected in their decision in November...
Don't know about the rest of the world, but I plan to voice my frustration with Obama and my disgust with Congress at every election, both federal and local, from this day forward. I'm one of the people who stood back and watched this mess take place. I accept responsibility and apologize for my attitude and lack of action in the past. I can hardly wait for the polls to open. You can count on me this time. I never dreamed it could get this bad ... not in my beautiful America. Now I plan to do everything possible to make it up to my grandchildren.
I couldn't wait until 11/2 to vote...so I didn't wait and voted Absentee. I feel GREEAATT!!
While this article is truly laughable, it's a good reminder that Independents, Republicans, Moderates and Conservatives alike need to go to the polls on November 2nd. Don't take anything for granted.
It's going to be worse, even John Dingall, a 17 term dem is 5 points down in the polls.
Thanks to the Democrats and Republicans, America cannot compete in a global market because of our trade policies. But, boy, can other countries flood our market with their crap (including bed bugs).
If your representative, Democrat or Republican, has been in office for more than 20 years, then they have participated under a majority rule at different times, to stop Americans from being able to compete in a global market.
Vote incumbents OUT!
I have absolutely NO doubt that the Republicans will win big in November.
I also have absolutely no doubt that the Democrates will then win bit in 2012, two years is not enough time for EITHER party to get a whole lot accomplished, especially when bills are passed that won't even take effect for 2 (or more) years.
ctdad has it right...people will vote for happening NOW. Anything going bad, get the other guy in...and two years from now when things are the same, they will get the original guys back in...
Sad :(
If the Refiblicans really do win big this fall, considering the group of clowns representing them, it may be the last hurrah for that party anytime in our lifetimes.
I love all these posts predicting the future.
If Republicans could predict the future why did we end up in this mess.
Eric
We are in this mess because of blind voter loyalty of people like you. Both the democrats and republicans have taken us to this point. I know by your posts that you have a strong dislike for anything right of center. Please explain to me how you can say that the republicans are blocking everything the democrats want to do right now when the democrats have such a strong majority in Congress. If you try to tell me that they actually need more control to stop the republicans, then why are the democrats not just as responsible for everything in the past because the republicans needed them to pass any regulations that have caused this mess?
We haven't seen anything like this mess since the last time one party had complete control. You are old enough to remember the Carter years aren't you?
Very interesting new survey out today.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143468/Likely-Voters-Demographically-Typical-Skew-Conservative.aspx
54% of likely voters consider themsevles conservative. That's up 12 points since '08.
57% identify as Republican or lean Republican.
Wave, indeed.
...JH...."Haven't seen anything like this mess since the last time one party had complete control ?"....Really ?....You mean like Bush and A republican Congress from Jan. 2000 until Jan. 2007?...There are surprises in store my friend, the best thing democrats have going for them are republicans, the constant predictions of a massacre, name calling, labels and belittling, the arrogance of a party out of touch with mainstream America and who supports the status-quo as the cure all for this mess we are in.......Sorry my friend, been there, done that, and it didn't work......hold onto your socks....at best, republicans will pick up 22 House seats and 2 in the Senate......result, two more years of obstructionism
Ellis
I don't know about you but I had some pretty good years from 2000 until 2007. It's what happened after the democrats told us in 2006 to elect them so that they could fix everything that we have gone down hill. The republicans did not have as strong a majority in those years as the democrats have had recently.
The only party out of touch with the mainstream is the democrat party in control today. Every poll about the health care reform said NO, even MSNBC polls. Every poll about the Nevada illegal immigrant law said it was a good idea. So what does the Obama administration do? And if you want to hear name calling and belittling and arrogance, just listen to our President. You know, the guy who was going to unite us. He is a failure and the democrat congress is a failure. See you at the voting booth.
Ellis, only 2 Senate seats and 22 House seat pick up for the Republicans? Really?
You're very optimistic for the Democrats then, probably bordering on fantasy.
RCP Senate & RCP House show different pictures.
Now, to start, you have to take all polling with a bit of skepticism, because it's not perfect. But when you analyze the broader macro trends going on, one thing becomes apparent. The Democrats are in trouble, and probably more so than at any time in recent history. Real Clear Politics is an balanced site which draws from both liberal and conservative sources to try and glean the truth from the spin out there, it's been able in the past to be a relatively accurate predictor of the public's mood.
They've currently got the Republicans picking up 35 seats comfortably in the House, while probably losing only 2 with relative certainty. There's about 39 in play as toss ups which are statistically too close to call. 37 of those 39 toss ups are currently Democrat seats. Of all those 39 toss ups, the Republicans only need to take 8, any 8 including the two currently held by Republicans, to take the majority in the House.
The Senate is a different picture. The Republicans are only poised to take 3 seats with relative certainty from the Democrats, while not likely to lose any of the ones they currently hold. 6 seats are toss ups, all of the Democrat seats. Still, in order to take control of the Senate, the Republicans would have to take 5 of the 6 toss up seats, and quite a few of them are in generally reliable liberal and Democratic areas. I don't think anything can be taken for granted, but the Republicans taking the House is possible but very much an outside long shot.
And that's just based on polling of those who have already made up their minds. Theres an awful lot of undecideds out there yet. Most of them tend to be political independents, and voters in the middle of the political spectrum. Independents are currently polling tilted away from the Democrats very heavily, they've been very turned off by the Progressive agenda. With previous electoral results as a benchmark, late breaking voters in this kind of climate tend to break down similar to those already trending one way or another, which means we can have a reasonable expectation it's undecideds are probably *not* going to tilt heavily towards the Democrats at the last moment. Then there's the enthusiasm gap, with the Democrats base frustrated with the pace of change and more apathetic than they'd like given the current climate that's so turned against them, and a GOP base that's fired up and looking for an electoral blood letting.
It does not add up to a pretty picture for the Democrats. Thus, they've been trying to manage expectations so they can say the GOP failed when they only picked up a huge amount instead of a massive amount. I doubt it will work as a messaging strategy, but they will try.
Anyway, I'm not a Republican, nor a Democrat. I'm a registered independent, pretty socially liberal, and pretty fiscally conservative, a moderate Libertarian by philosophy. I've voted for Democrats far more often than I have Republicans, including for Obama, Kerry, Gore, and Clinton. While I will be supporting some Republicans this election, I am not a partisan hack, not faithful to either party, and not inclined to trust either one of them. So take that into account when you read what I've got to say above.
The Democrats are in trouble. I'm not sure how bad, or what the degree and the scope will be, but the credible signs point to this election being anywhere from pretty terrible, to catastrophic to potentially apocalyptically bad for the Democrats.
....JH.....a lot of people did well from 02 til mid 07, just like they did during the high tech boom from 92 til 99, but neither boom were due in part to actions taken by democrat nor republican politicians. The1992 to 99 boom was due mostly to large break throughs in high tech, and the 02 to mid 07 boom was due mostly to lax credit, lending and ponzi schemes by financial institutions that eventually blew up in their face.
It does not matter what color you paint it, it is still what it is. A sustainable economy is mostly dependent upon consumers with expendable cash on hand and the ability of small business to grow and prosper. The worst thing is to create an environmet that encourages or promotes the out sourcing of jobs, or trade deficits that continually dimminishes America's stockpile of cash and wealth, we simply cannot keep trading $3 for $1 and hope to survive......The short story of why I am presently opposed to republicans, is they do not seem to see the problem with outsourcing of jobs, or the dangers globalized labor competition poses to America's standard of living......As things now stand, America's standard of living must be frozen until the rest of our trading partner's standard of living catches up, or the American standard of living must be lowered to match that of our trading partners....I find neither scenario acceptable or in the best interest of America maintaining it's super power status.....sorry for such a long post
....JPM......I'll stand by my predictions, see you after 11/3......I sure wish polls and so-called expert predictions were always correct, When I was still coaching, four times out of five my team went into the championship game as heavy favorites, and lost three, the other time we were the under-dog, and won....so much for polls and experts, there is no such thing as an 'expert'
Perhaps while President Obama is out begging for votes -- he should try shedding a tear, too.
Worked for Hillary (although in retrospect she was probably the better candidate anyway. but you can blame that all on Florida & Michigan for "jumping the gun" and the DNC for "punishing them" at Clinton's expense of course - until Obama finally had the delegates needed to sew up the primary. It would actually SAVE THE TAXPAYERS a whole boat load of money if the Political Classes of the TWO Parties would simply DESIGNATE their respective candidates for President in the 1st place -- well, that's a whole 'nother debate).
Don't worry Democrats -- the LOONEY TUNE liberals in Seattle, San Francisco, & Hollywood will carry the Senate seats in Washington & California, so unless the Republicans can flip West Virginia . . . that ship has already sailed.
However, it really is a HOOT that the SELF-DESIGNATED Tea Party Candidate in Nevada is competing for the WACKO vote against the GOP Sharron Angle! While the Dinosaur who is currently "Head of the Senate" still hasn't a clue.
AND in view of O'Donnell in Delaware & Alvin Greene in SC . . . it would seem as though we've all fallen down the rabbit hole with Alice.
SADLY THIS IS THE NEW WORLD VIEW OF AMERICA -- and we've long since sailed off the edge with Columbus.
Maybe, the electorate is finally realizing that the Teapublicons have a single-minded interest in destroying the country (read: a return to Bush policies)?
For the rational observer,there have been no real great surprises in the results of political races and primaries for years now. With an army of political professionals and the technology available to canvas and track the political mood of literally every single precinct, the overall results have been pretty much exactly what the political scientists have predicted, (with only the occasional, rare, isolated,or too close to call,exception). Even the actions of the partisans from one side or the other, such as the writers of this article, who are now desperately attempting to minimize the damage, are predictable.With the political climate as it now exists,even factoring in the standard "October Surprise", and the votes of the dead in corrupt, radical, progressive, hotbeds like Chicago, Seattle, and areas of California, with the results that have already been demonstrated throughout the primaries,(more than four million more conservative and moderate voters showing up to the polls than the socialists), and with what every legitimate poll has consistently shown so far concerning the mood of the electorate,all the extreme lefts anticipated manipulations should not be enough to significantly alter the expected outcomes of this election,....if it does, we, as a nation, have a problem.
2010 is the year of DISGUST with all Politicians, both incumbent and wantabes!!!!
It's a dirty job, but someone has to do it LOL!
The only way we will ever see change in our electoral system is for all of us to band together and promote the two constitutional amendment petitions at www.faircampaignreform.us. The first petition, calling for election/campaign finance reform, has as one of its sections a requirement that EVERY candidate, no matter for what office, must complete a binding contract as part of his/her ballot petition. That contract spells out his/her position on every possible issue that might come before them if elected. IF they renege on any single issue on that contract, we the voters could then take them to court for felony breach of contract. It also limits campaigns to just 60 days prior to ONE NATIONAL PRIMARY DAY to be held on the Tuesday eight weeks prior to the General Election. It also severely restricts campaign donations (individuals only--$200 single person/$500 family and maximum 60% of total individual donations expenditure by the candidate out-of-pocket) with NO corporate, union, non-profit, etc. donations allowed and NO third party campaigning for/against any candidate.
the same partys (who are financed and controlled by wall-street and the banks). just one of the biggest problems this country has
Only partially right, this is the year of disgust with the Democratic agenda. When elected in 2008, Democrats surmised they could do whatever they wanted and proceeded to ignor and stopped listening to the American people. Now they will pay the price for their arrogance. The lesson learned here is which ever side you are on, do not stop listening to the people who sent you to Washington.
Republicans didn't listen to Americans when it came to the public option. So Republicans if you get a chance to repeal and replace, you might want to put a public option in there.
Sorry Eric, you don't get to rewrite history. When the Senate was debating the public option over 60% of Americans did not want it. It those figures had been reversed, we would have the public option now. But the fact that at the present over 60% of Americans do not want any of the Health Reform Act and want it repealed. However, the left keeps telling itself that Health Reform is popular. They point to polls showing Americans says they want the Health Care system reformed. But Americans just don't want what the left is trying to shove down it's throat. Again, listen to what the people are saying, not what you want to hear. At present almost 70% of Americans do not want your public option. If it was as popular as you think, the Democrats would be running on it not running away from it.
Excellent points, Ray. And while we're debunking Eric's nonsense, the public option died while the Democrats still had a super-majority in the Senate and had long since decided to shut the Republicans out of virtually all negotiation or offering of amendment. The DEMOCRATS and the WHITE HOUSE killed the public option, in return for $115 billion in givebacks from the hospitals. JUST LIKE they killed importation of medicine in return for $80 billion in givebacks from pharma.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/05/tom-daschle-public-option_n_751111.html
Eric, deal with it. The DEMOCRATS sold the American people's hopes of affordable, market based health care down the river with gladhanding and a laser-like focus on concentrating as much power in the government as possible.
..anti-trust.......I agree about the banding together part....but the proposition you speak of is too vague and subject to loopholes and interpretation...
The better way to return representative loyalty to constituents who elected them, limit campaign finances and curb lobbyist and outside influence over local elections is a state by state proposition to enact a people's 'ethics law'. A law that confines campaign fund raising to the 'particular' constituency (area) a 'particular' public elected office is empowered to represent in an official capacity in whatever legislated body.....In other words, " If you are not my representative, and are not empowered to represent me in an official capacity, you cannot accept campaign contributions from me."....A representative is a representative, whether at the local level, state, national or court of law, loyalty means everything
Too vague and full of loopholes? Where is the vagueness and what are the loopholes? If you are referring to the "local funding only" for Representatives in your response, OK, but this amendment also concerns the Senate and Presidential races as well. Since all funding, other than national party, is restricted to individuals only, I bet that for MOST Representatives, the funding will be primarily from their own district under this amendment.....also the fact that the limits have been drastically cut to $200 for an individual and $500 for a family living in the same household.
Did you even go to the site and read the full text of the amendment before posting your response?
Been saying it for months now................don't count your Teabaggers before they're hatched. People are wise to the pollsters. Do the responders tell the truth, or do they just give the answer that someone wants to hear, and then hang up and say, ha ha, the dummy thinks I told him the truth!You know that warm glow you get inside when you know that you fooled someone taking a political poll. Please read about the election between Truman and Dewey. Vote for the best candidate, not for who's ahead in the polls:
Campaigns have become one more installment in reality TV. The more outrages and controversial, the more entertaining. Witches, Cosmopolitan centerfolds, Trump-esque billionaires. If you think the campaign is entertaining, wait till these guys get into office. Great TV over a cup of tea. I guess that must be why Oprah is retiring. She can't compete!
I vote the issues this time .... that's a promise. For the Democrats who voted with Obama on his socialist control programs .... you're on my list. You're out. Could care less about your party, your color, or your religion. Never have. This country overwhelmingly elected a black President, and it enrages me that anyone who now disagrees with his Marxist socialist agenda and blatant arrogance is labeled a racist. I didn't vote for him because he was black, and I assure you I won't vote for him or the radicals behind him in spite of it. To use the race card is only proof of your panic and desperation. Campaign on the issues and stop trying to divide our nation!
frag, they didn't have the scientific polling 60 years ago which they have today. So keep believing that every poll out there is wrong. Most of them are well beyond the margin of error. So keep believing the line you are spinning, reality hits soon.
Yet, in a lot of elections things happen in the end that influence the outcome. Wait for the week before the election and look at polls then.
Things are definitely tightening up.
Eric, I think I have heard that before. Yes, the McCain campaign in Oct. of 2008
Fairly typical. If you don't like what a poll says, claim the poll is inaccurate.
AND, it could even be true.
Except when all the polls come back saying pretty much the same thing - with an occasional outlier to prove it - it's time to accept reality.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/143468/Likely-Voters-Demographically-Typical-Skew-Conservative.aspx
Here's another. Pretty reputable polling firm.
Eric Are the polls tightening up or are your referring to the ABC pols where they polled twice as many dems than reps. What a joke, is that what you call polling.
Take a good long hard look at the Poll results of recent years.....how often did anyone say the (day after)...SURPRISE, SURPRISE, SURPRISE! Get real.....it is what is and it will manifest itself on Tuesday, November 2nd so deal with it!
No, they don't say "surprise, surprise". They scream "ACORN" and "VOTER FRAUD". The polls are often wrong but wrong-headed people (such as yourself, apparently) refuse to believe it.
I should also add, one reason why the polls are even more suspect than usual, is that many people believe the real problem in America is the Media itself. Every time a news photographer gets hit in the nose with his own camera, most people think............gee I wish I could have done that, serves him right; and why? They have no respect.
Before the anti-trust laws were tossed in this country, there were laws preventing a controlling financial interest in multiple news media outlets... Now that Rupert Murdoch owns almost everything, there's no such thing as "news" being reported. The media has become a source of propaganda that is continually "spun" for profit and/or ratings. The general public has become aware of it...and most intelligent, objective adults can see through it. It saves lots of $$ on the electric bill when you refuse to watch... Similar to bank credit cards, the American public is becoming empowered by their refusal to be swayed by the pundits... When the audiences are reduced as significantly as the credit card use, maybe they'll get the message. WE DON'T NEED YOU TO DICTATE YOUR OPINIONS. WE ARE CAPABLE AND INTELLIGENT ENOUGH TO FORM OUR OWN OPINIONS AND MAKE WISE CHOICES BASED ON THE FACTS. IF YOU DON'T SUPPLY UNTARNISHED FACTS AND INFORMATION ABOUT THE DAY'S NEWS, WE'LL FIND IT ELSEWHERE.
Like everything else, the polls and predictions about the upcoming elections are opinions based on history that is no longer relevant in such a radically changing environment and society that predictions are a waste of time and energy.
The negative ads being run are so distasteful that I have ordered enough movies to avoid watching TV for the next month... So they're wasting their money as far as I'm concerned.
frag, your problem is this isn't one or two polls. All the polls are saying the same thing. So if you believe the polls are in error, you have to believe all the polls made the same type of error resulting in nearly the same conclusion. Talk about conspiracy theories, one will endeavor to believe anything but reality
FINALLY! A sober, realistic assessment of the 2010 landscape. Yes, Democrats will lose seats - they picked up a LOT on '06 and '08, so they'll lose some. But it's not going to be this "tidal wave" many on the right are hoping for, and the press seems to be cheerleading at the moment.
At least someone has written something that accurately reflects what's happening, and that frankly, no one really knows what WILL happen.
LOVE your user name! HA! Still Hussein after all this time.
Tired of all the lies from both parties. Tired of the spin....
Maybe if some of these dirtbags actually stepped up and took the blame for their failures and then worked hard to correct them, they might earn more respect.
Maybe if Barney Frank and his Fannie/Freddie buddies said, "Yeah we missed it on that, but here's legislation which will prevent it from happening again"....maybe that might just show he has a spine. But instead they see what went wrong, spin it to be someone ELSE'S fault and even better....they KEEP DOING WHAT FAILED!!!!
The new legislation for financial reform does not even target Fannie and Freddie. How much sense does that make?
I know America has to have smart people who can solve these problems logically. WHERE ARE THEY?
By the 2012 election, the GOP must have a large, veto proof majority to enable the country to repeal the Obama Legacy. I am not a fan of the GOP by a long shot, but Obama's goal of an entitlement nation with the government controlling major industries must be snuffed before "free enterprise" is lost to our economy and country. Nancy Pelosi states that, to paraphrase, "the best way to get our country going again economically is to increase the number of people on food stamps and on unemployment insurance. " Jobs, jobs, jobs. Bust the Unions once and for all and get America working again.
"Free enterprise"? We haven't had that for over a century, thank god. We don't need another "robber baron" era, but the GOP is sure trying to establish one once again. Busting unions won't get America working again, simply because even the non-union workers want the same wages and benefits. Corporations selling globally (which is most corporations of any size any more) are all taking their production to the source of cheapest labor and growing markets. The US market has been sliding for the past two decades compared to other parts of the world. That is why we have lost US jobs for the past four years. As American wage earning drops and prices continue to rise, the purchasing power also drops exponentially. THAT is what caused this recession, along with deregulation, unfunded tax cuts, limited federal staff to do the oversight it has been held responsible for, etc. The GOP especially, and the Dems as well, are responsible for America's downturn. If we don't start spending money on infrastructure, education, and other jobs creating areas of need, this country will soon become a third world nation, not the world leader we have been for so long.
Mr. and Mrs Korean legal immigrant come here to NYC and buy a push cart. They go to the Fulton street fish market and buy inexpensive fish that they will trim then bread, spice and deep fry on their cart. After a long day, they go home to a small, cramped apartment and have the mornings trimmings for dinner. after a couple of years of working hard and SAVING their money, they open a small "hole in the wall" restaurant and lease their cart to a relative. Having saved money, they start a family. The restaurant grows into larger accommodations. The children do very well at school, as that's what their parents expect and demand of them. These are clients of mine, and they are not alone. They don't adhere to YOUR moronic outlook. They just DO IT!
The country would be much better off if people grew to realize, nobody owes you a damn thing! And then worked hard to provide for themselves and family.
"Obama's goal of an entitlement nation with the government controlling major industries"
Huh? What in the world are you talking about? Another example of right wing hysteria. He passed a bill to try and make health insurance more affordable and available to all Americans. He bailed out the domestic auto industry and the banks to prevent an economic collapse. Why do Republicans want to have a depression? This is the worst economic recession since the 1929. How fast do you think he should have "fixed" it? 6 months? Republicans with the same tired rhetoric they've been spewing since the 80s. We've tried your way and our standard of living is dropping while the CEOs get richer.
Ver immpresive up-by-the-bootstraps story Dahly. They may not feel like it but they are living the American dream. And I bet that when good fortune smiles on them, that they really appreciate it. God bless them.
Sam, the Obama Health Care Legislation is designed to destroy/eliminate the private Health Insurance industry. They can not meet the requirements and turn a profit. It wass just 4% as of 2009. The Federal government will be the sole provider of health care, by design. All those evil HC insurance employees will make Pelosi happy as they will expand the food stamp and unemployment insurance entitlement programs. Career politicians, GOP/Dems can just go screw themselves.
Dahly. So the answer is to just leave millions of families uninsured and to deny coverage to people that need it the most. Typical of conservatives, "I got mine, so screw everyone else". "We'd like for everyone to live, but we just can't afford it."
Public Hospitals; or better your own situation.
Does anyone think that after November, the Democrats will have enough of anything in Congress to pass any additional health care legislation. At the best, they will be fighting a battle against defunding the Health Reform legislation. The next Republican drive will be to repeal the legislation. The next two years will be spent on both defunding and repeal. This will be a major issue in 2012. Right now, there are between 8-10 Democratic senator who would probably vote to repeal. With between 58-64% of Americans for repeal in the polls, Democrats will be on the defense until 2012. If public opinion continues in the same direction and unemployment is at 8% or more, the Dems will find it very difficult to hold off this trend. Expect, in 2011, the Democrats to start a drive to "fix" some of the problems with this legislation. Remember a large portion of Democratic Congressmen had not read this bill before voting on it. Many have been alarmed at some of the provisions of it.
Please indicate where you got the repeal percentages. From what I have seen and read, 56% are in favor of the Health Care Reform Act. If you tell me you got those facts from Fox, try another source.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/health_care_law
There ya go, Joe. Since I KNOW you'll have a problem with Rasumussen, here's a couple more:
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/onpolitics/post/2010/04/poll-nearly-six-in-10-support-health-care-repeal/1
http://thehill.com/house-polls/the-hill-anga-poll-week-1/122851-distaste-for-healthcare-law-crosses-party-lines
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/obama_and_democrats_health_care_plan-1130.html
Another attempt by this Liberal rag to keep up Democrat spirits....this election will be a blood bath for Dems and they already know this..it is going to be a stone cold body slam...so all of you Marxist Liberals brace yourself and face reality...
You thought McCain and the Alaska quitter were going to win in 2008, didn't you?
Now that you're done, are you going to also gin up the usual claim that "libs" start grenade-trolling, throwing rocks, calling names and generally asking for trouble, while polite, soft-spoken conservatives like yourself just hunker down and weather the attack?
sam, but in 2008 the polls all showed Obama winning. This time they are showing a big GOP win. So the polls were right in 2008 but they are all wrong now?
Looks like an MSNBC CYA story
To answer the headline: YES!
you read it here first!!!!!
house dems=225.....house gop=210
senate dems=53.....senate gop=47
fear & loathing will NOT preside in 2010
That's okay, we'll settle, the dems will not be able to pass a single bill with those numbers, Obama won't be able to drive us deeper in debt.
and that's the key. gridlock the loonies on both sides.
A good election will be San Fran Nan flying commercial.
A very interesting article and some very interesting spin being generated in response. Actually, I think the article is accurate. As the only person posting so far who had actually RUN two successful political campaigns (both GOP by the way) and depended heavily on polls, it all depends on the pollster. The polling methodology is what counts, as well as the sample and how it was chosen.
We can yell at each other all day about which side is going to win and which polls are correct, but in the end, NONE of us really know what we're talking about because we don't know the pollsters, their methods or their samples.
I will say this, in my experience, if a person takes the time to respond to a polling call in the evening they generally answer truthfully unless there is something about the call that causes them concern. I don't believe there is a wholesale conspiracy to feed bad information to the pollster.
I do believe, and I have responded to several, that pollsters use poorly worded polling questioned and poorly trained people making the calls. All that can dramatically affect the results of your poll.
So, calm down everybody. November 2nd will be what it will be, polls be damned.
My personal opinion, tinged with hope, is that the American people will listen to the facts and not the propaganda and they will make wise decisions. I believe the GOP will take a few seats. I also beleive they will lose a few seats based on the poor quality of some of their candidates. I do not think we will see a tidal wave of turn over in the House or the Senate. At least I hope not.
But, as I said before, what will be, will be on November 2nd. We are almost to the point in the campaign when ma and pa voter have made up their minds and there is nothing we could do short of a major scandal to change their minds. So, save you breath, get out and vote and we'll all known the end of the story on November 3rd.
Have a nice weekend everybody. And I mean, everybody.
Nicely stated, Skip!
I like your very insightful view. I have one comment: I was polled and told that I would need to answer 10 questions and after they asked my party affiliation ( I am a proud Democrat), the pollster hastily hung up. So much for polls.
That is the problem with all polls, Joe. The pollster firms rig the questions, are not truly unbiased in their samplings (nor are they truly "random"), and the number interviewed is always such an infinitesimally small number of the population that there is no way ANY poll is truly representational of the general population.
Yup, don't like what the polls say, impugn the veracity of the poll - with NO proof.
Until you LIKE what they say, then run all over the vines with the results.
LOL.
When we accept how Republicans frame the debate, we end up with the situation we have now where Health Care reform and Wall Street reform are seen negatively.
We need to lead with our positive message and not follow by responding to Republican talking points.
Nonsense Harbinger,
Everyone believes that healthcare needed reform (and still does). There were about 14 points that both parties were in complete agreement on over health care. If those were crafted into a bill and passed, that would have been a great start. The other issues should have gone to a bi-partisan committee for as long as necessary and added as agreed upon.
Thats the way our government is supposed to work. This administration is completely arrogant and now they are going to pay the piper.
Why is it that only the Democrats have to be "bi-partisan", while Republicans march in lock step opposition to anything the Democrats try? If the dems try to pass legislation to help veterans, the Republicans vote no, just out of spite. It's ridiculous. To think that our economic situation would be better under Republicans is insane. No to Wall Street reform. No to extended unemployment benefits. No to minimum wage hikes. No to anything that benefits the real people instead of their corporate masters.
Sam, are you one of the just 53% of wage earners who actually pay Federal Income Tax, after filing? Why do the other 47% not just get a free ride, but ENTITLEMENTS? Are some too lazy, stupid or just unmotivated because Mommy Obama will take care of them?
Dahly, what percentage of Americans didn't pay income tax during the 8 years of Bush? Do you know how low your income has to be to be exempt from income tax? Let's let them all die in the gutter. What other parts of civilzation do want to get rid of?
Dahly,
I have a good assignment for you. Why don't you do some research and see when it became 47% who don't pay income taxes? You will quickly find it wasn't always that way. Part of it was due to changes in the tax code over the past 10 years, including the Bush tax cuts. Part of it is also due to the stimulus.
"The 47 percent number is not wrong. The stimulus programs of the last two years — the first one signed by President George W. Bush, the second and larger one by President Obama — have increased the number of households that receive enough of a tax credit to wipe out their federal income tax liability." http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/economy/14leonhardt.html
And just because someone doesn't pay income tax does not mean they don't pay taxes.
Regardless of party, when someone votes "no" on a bill, that "no" may not be because of the main issue itself, which may have been a noble cause, but what was attached to it. Frankly, the word "comprehensive" scares the crap out of me. If Congress is to ever get anything done on behalf of the American people, they should put an end to this "2,000 pages that nobody has read" crap and pass small bills individually. THAT would be working for America. We all have common ground, but that common ground gets lost in the pork and entitlements.
Sam the last two lines of your post were just plain stupid.
Binski,
There's been a great deal of attention brought to the page count of legislation. This is nothing new.
My opinion is that this only became a "focus of outrage" because as the GOP sought to derail HCR, they seized on anything that would look and sound "extreme" to the average voter... knowing that the average voter isn't going to take the time to see if that really means anything or not.
A decade ago, when Phil Gramm (R-TX) wasn't able to get "Commodities Futures Modernization" legislation passed on its own merits (because it had none), he finally attached it as a rider to an 11,000 page end-of-year omnibus finance bill. Apparently no one read that either, because it passed. The result? The "Enron Loophole", $4/gal gasoline, and a few other similar gifts to the public at large.
Did you catch that? 11,000 pages? So don't you wonder why some patriotic GOP legislator didn't wave that number around then?
There are several articles on the Web that address this Enormous Issue. One is here:
http://www.slate.com/id/2225820/
And here's the meat of that story, for your convenience. Read, and see if you still think that "2000 page" deal is as unusual as you've been led to believe.
Over the last several decades, the number of bills passed by Congress has declined: In 1948, Congress passed 906 bills. In 2006, it passed only 482. At the same time, the total number of pages of legislation has gone up from slightly more than 2,000 pages in 1948 to more than 7,000 pages in 2006. (The average bill length increased over the same period from 2.5 pages to 15.2 pages.)
Bills are getting longer because they're getting harder to pass. Increased partisanship over the years has meant that the minority party is willing to do anything it can to block legislation—adding amendments, filibustering, or otherwise stalling the lawmaking process. As a result, the majority party feels the need to pack as much meat into a bill as it can—otherwise, the provisions might never get through. Another factor is that the federal government keeps expanding. Federal spending was about $2.7 trillion in 2007. That's up from $92 billion 50 years ago. And as new legislation is introduced, past laws need to be updated. The result: more pages.
All wage earners (whose wages are reported) pay taxes through the various automatic tax withholdings. Where that number of "non-taxpayers" comes from is actually the number of taxpayers whose credits/deductions at the end of the year actually far outweigh their liabilities as tomilvento partially pointed out. There are probably just as many wealthy who get total tax write-offs and refunds as there are "poor" workers. Just because a person falls below the tax liability point at the end of the year does NOT mean that they haven't paid income taxes. It just means that they get back those taxes that they did pay in during the year, or at least a portion of them.
The polls are based on statistical analysis. This is an actual science and it is accurate within the parameters stated (i.e., accurate to within + or - 1.5%) Their accuracy depends on their methodology and the true randomness of their sampling, If a poll manager wanted their results to be skewed either way, then all he need do is mess with the sampling method, and then not mention that this poll was taken say...in an all black neighborhood, or, this sample was taken from people having their BMW's serviced. Neither a fair random sample.
Another liberal "journalist" hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG!! Well cheer up pal. After all, any really CLOSE races are practically guaranteed to go to the democrat, given your professionalism in voter fraud and contest rigging. So at least, you have ONE thing to look forward to--those thousands of ballots suddenly discovered in the trunks of cars!!!!
Funny -- "Another liberal "journalist" hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG." reminds me of 2008 and 2006 when all those conservative "journalist" were hoping against hope that all those polls are WRONG!! The reality is most people only believe in polls when polls tell them what they want to hear.
Excellent article.
Reminds me of the phrase: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."
One can make what you wish from polls, it just depends upon whom you call or poll, how you determine whom you poll, what questions are asked, how you phrase the questions, and then what you report. Raw data can interpreted in every possible fashion, to suit your objective.
Thanks, Skip N. from OK City... great post.
I had planned on talking at some length about the media and the Washington politicians and lobbyists, but I will keep it short... it's not how much money is generated and spent. It is how many votes you can produce on election day. Can tons of cash from a few wealthy sources make a difference in the number of votes cast? Can the media really make a difference in how they frame the discussions and influence voters? I am doubtful of either actually being completely true each and every time. When it all comes down to the actual ballot, voters will vote with their conscience and level of comfort with the candidates. Lies in elections need to be challenged in the courts as that is the only way which we can see the facts being the truth used in all campaigns. Limitations on the amount of money used in each and every campaign is necessary to allow an equal and level playing field and to allow people other than the connected or the wealthy to run for office and have a chance of winning. Remember, it's all about the ideas espoused by the candidates.
I've already voted in Ohio's early voting program and I hope everyone will take the time to exercise their right to vote in this election. It is important to be heard.
In the past 19 months I have seen enough filibustering, lie calling, no voting, foot stomping from the Republicans in congress, that I couldn't ever think of voting for another republican anytime soon. They have no Ideas, and they stop any idea that comes up.
They have no vision for the USA at this time. They have no solutions. They create more problems for our citizens by blocking jobs, lending, and support for small businesses in this economy. It is unbelievable how they stopped people from getting help for unemployment. I can't believe their pompous arrogant behavior when we need every one working for the same home team. They have shown that they are not team players.
The rest of the world is laughing at us while manipulating the Repubs one way then the other. The best thing to happen for the Dems is the Tea Party crowd scraping off the old Repub guard one by one. They don't like them either! They see their weakness for cash and favors has blinded them to the facts, but they(Tea Party) like cash and favors too! So divide and conquer dems. It is in our hands to win this race.
Hey NickOhio,
Just to add to your comment. I think the negative campaign ads have just about ended their usefulness. People have seen so much of them that they have gotten wise to how they work. This has undermined their effectiveness and actually have a negative "backfire effect on the candidate who paid for the ad.
From the New York Times:
Republicans are better informed about political issues than blacks, Hispanics, and young people.
"Big-city liberals and their blogging buddies love to paint Tea Partiers as yokels with incoherent candidates and language-mauling signs," began Charles Blow's column Saturday.
"The unpleasant fact that these liberals rarely mention, and may not know, is that large swaths of the Democratic base, groups they need to vote in droves next month - blacks, Hispanics and young people - are far less civically literate than their conservative counterparts."
According to a poll released this week by the Pew Research Center, 42 percent of blacks, 42 percent of Hispanics and 35 percent of voters ages 18 to 29 years old don't even know that Democrats have a majority in the House? (Only 71 percent of Democrats overall knew that Democrats had a majority in the House. By comparison, 82 percent of Republicans knew it.)
In the Pew poll, 64 percent of Hispanics, 51 percent of young adults and 45 percent of blacks could not name Biden as the vice president. (Only 35 percent of Republicans got it wrong.)
Republicans don't belive in Biology, Geology, or Astronomy. They think the earth was created in 6 days 6000 years ago and that evil, liberal, scientists have created mice with "fully functioning human brains". They want to get rid of social security, medicare, and medicade, the EPA and the Department of Education, and privatize the Veterans administration. They want to give insurace companies back the right to deny and limit coverage. They don't want the bailed out bankers to pay taxes on their obscene bonuses. They think it's good if your job is shipped to China or India and want to give tax breaks to the companies that do it.
Can't get much more ignorant than that.
25% of Republicans think the sun revolves around the earth and that Sarah Palin is qualified to be president. Can't get much more ignorant than that.
Sam, are you one of the just 53% of wage earners who actually pay Federal Income Tax, after filing? Why do the other 47% not just get a free ride, but ENTITLEMENTS? Are some too lazy, stupid or just unmotivated because Mommy Obama will take care it.
Yes, I pay taxes. What you should be worried about is the fact that 47% of Americans earn an income so low, it's exempt from income tax. But I guess you think that a family of four who subists on minimum wage (which I'm sure you think is too high and should be eliminated altogether) should pay the same tax rate as the millionares.
I believe in a smaller, limited government, whose representatives actually represent the majority of people in their districts. I do not believe in the GOP or the Democratic parties. I believe in very limited social services, reserved for the mentally and physically incapable. I believe if you are to tax anyone, you tax everyone who earns a wage. Most of all, I believe in Self Responsibility as no one owes anyone else a damn thing. I volunteer 5-10 hours each and every week for the past 30 years, donate greater than 10% of my earnings to Charity and challenge YOU to do likewise.
Move to Mexico. You'll love it there.
"Republicans are better informed about political issues than blacks, Hispanics, and young people."
Interesting quote implies that blacks, Hispanics and young people aren't Republicans.
At least, if they are smart, they aren't Republicans. Why should anyone, in the lower or middle class vote to cut their own throat, by voting for a Republican?
This is an easy one to answer. The middle class should vote GOP because the would rather have a job than food stamps.
Thanks for the advice sam but we prefer to just take Washington back. So see you in November.
I think you'll be happier in Mexico. Small, weak, central government, no social safety nets, no social security, medicare, medicade, no government health plan. They only pave the roads on the "good" side of town. It's perfect for you. I'll be there in November. I'm anxious to see if we can start getting rid of those scientists who are "creating mice with fully functioning human brains". I'm sure that will get tea partiers to vote for conservatives because "mice with fully functioning human brains" is even scarier than gay, muslims, burning American flags.
It goes a lot lot deeper than that...if you watched the exit interviews with Obama voters in 2008 you know what I mean...these folks are just big steaming wads of stupidity. When the Dems bus in loads of illiterates and then cheat the system by registering illegals, felons,dead people, etc you can see how they corrupt the entire process.
In short, Democrats are basically to ignorant to vote and it wouldn't be a bad idea to sterilize most of them as they leave the voting booth to insure the future of the country.
It is comments such as yours (and there are many) that cause me to loathe anything Republican. Say anything, call them any name imaginable, lower the opposition to the level of dirt, discredit the Pres. for wearing blue socks on Tues, no to everything presented by the Democrats. Who should be sterilized? You sure have guts. I laugh at tv ads by Republicans. "I'll bring jobs back" And they all stress that point. How in hell are they going to do any better than Democrats? Corporations in their greed send jobs overseas in order to satisfy investors and to increase profits. I say tax the products they send back into the US so heavily it becomes more profitable to make those products here. Republicans won't do this. Well, at least we still have GM and Chrysler.
Hopefully, this is the year the voters turn D.C. on it's head, shake them up and down, and toss them out with the rest of the trash!
Sounds like both sides are getting a bit shrill and panicked. Politics has become Reality-TV.
I love articles like this one. The polls are are wrong and the Dems will not lose more than 3 or 4 seats. If i were going to vote for the Dems, i would just stay home on November 2nd. After all, the Tea Party is no big deal, and wont last more than a month or two.
You're exactly right. The Dems will be reelected with or without your vote and who in the heck needs the hassle ?
Well, those are two of the most blatantly pathetic statements I've ever seen. Are you seriously trying to get people to stay home on election day? Is that the only way you're going to win anything?
Or are you just running scared now?
January 2006 the democrats took over complete congressional control and power of the country. The democrats have failed to manage the economy, the war in Afghanistan, immigration and the social ills of our country and its time to throw them out of office replacing them with people than can do the job.
But the only people you have to do that with are Republicans, and they are worse. Tea Party candidates are looking like plants from the Dems inasmuch as where they are running for the Republican spots they are falling falling falling in the polls, and Dems will either hold or pick up those seats.
"January 2006 the democrats took over complete congressional control and power of the country......"
Because the Republicans got thrown out for screwing things up so badly, remember that part? Yet, you give them a bye on the previous SIX years of Republican control and blame EVERYTHING on TWO years of Democratic control. The party of no brains.
Afghanistan: This is the war the Republicans abandoned because they were convinced that Saddam was flying one of the planes on 9/11. Republicans turned the hunt for Bin Ladin over to the Afghan militias because we were too busy trying to convince the world that Saddam was going to attack us with "nukular" weapons. The result? Bin Ladin and the Taliban escaped into Pakistan where they have destablized that government and continue to carry out attacks on U.S. interests. Thank you W and all you fisal conservatives for saving us from terrorism, yeah right.
...Bighorn....."replace democrats with people who can do the job?".....now whom would that be ? ....The same people who drove this bus off the cliff, gave us a senseless war in Iraq, passed half a dozen free trade agreements that sent (8) million American manufacturing jobs abroad and let America be overrun by 14 million illegal immigrants so the rich could exploit cheap labor and drive down American workers bargaining power?.......surely you do not mean those people, or did you have someone else in mind
What I'm reading here is no defense of the actions the Democrats have taken, but rather a condemnation of the actions taken by the Republicans prior as some sort of weak justification for the unpopularity and failure of the actions taken by the Democrats.
Really? Is that what we're doing now, just voting in the party that has had the LEAST amount of time to screw things up lately, so everything is fair? The Republicans got six years to gum up the works, therefore the Democrats should get six years, too?
I don't think so. But there is one thing that I am personally grateful to the Obama - and Bush - administrations for:
And that is waking the people of this country the hell up. After a full decade of malfeasance on the part of both parties, people are finally paying attention.
...Pragmatic......incorrect....most people are not paying attention, it has nothing to do with time on the job either. If I had my choice I would dump the majority of both parties in Congress, disband national party committees and make elections open to all comers. We have to dispose of this 'us against them' mentality, this extremism of both the left and right that dominates American politics, and the mindset we are always left with a choice between the lesser of the evils.....At this point, though weak in nature, I do see some progress grudgingly being made by Obama despite an obstructionist republican party and a democratic Congress that is lacking backbone....but progress nonetheless
Pragmatic.
What I'm reading here is no defense of the actions the Republicans have taken, but rather a condemnation of the actions taken by the Democrats prior as some sort of weak justification for the unpopularity and failure of the actions taken by the Republicans.
Exactly what did the Republicans do a good job on that the electorate overlooked in 2006 and 2008?
Uh, Sam? The Republicans lost control of both houses of Congress in the '06 elections. Pay attention.
Ellis -
The progress is in the wrong direction in the opinion millions of people in this country. I don't credit Obama and the Democrats for ignoring that, nor do I buy into your "obstructionist" nonsense. Even Obama recognized, there are legitimate disagreements between the parties and this country was NOT founded on the concept of the majority running roughshod over the minority.
I have no use for either party anymore either, but have even LESS use for a majority that takes control of both houses and the executive and thinks that gives them the right to do whatever the hell they want with NO input allowed from the minority - and to claim otherwise is to lie, Ellis. The Republicans had dug in their heels, but they were shut out from square one when Obama say, "We won, we're not doing that." in April '09.
Don't try to tell me, the Republicans killed the health care bill. The Democrats and Obama killed that bill all by themselves - then passed it anyway. They killed the public option, in a $155 billion trade-off with the hospitals. They killed less expensive medicine, in an $80 billion deal with pharma.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/05/tom-daschle-public-option_n_751111.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/health/policy/06insure.html
They blocked the elected representatives of 40% of the population of this country from a meeting that the union bosses, representing only 13% and NOT elected officials were allowed to attend.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/31527.html
Do you want to try again, defending the behavior of Obama and the Democrats? I suppose now you're going to be all, Well! The Republicans did this and that and the other thing from '00 to '06!!!!!! And to that I say, yea, and that's why THEY got thrown the hell out, AND nothing they did - NOTHING - will screw as many people in this country as badly as that health scare deform bill will.
It's as bad as anything EVER pulled by the Republicans, and in many ways worse, because 53% of the people in this country voted for Obama to change this kind of crap.
And THAT's why it's over for them. Checks and balances need to be restored, per force.
..Pragmatic.. I agree the Health care bill turned out to be an Albatross that never should have been passed or signed.....But how do you defend republicans opposition to reform of how financial institutions and Wall street conducts business or constant opposition to extending unemployment benifits, opposition to limits on predatory credit card interest rates or support of extending tax cuts for the upper 2% which do not create more than 6% of jobs, not counting government, small business creates 70% of jobs, and none of them create anything unless the consumer has jobs, expendable cash on hand and is purchasing products other than necessities....And if you think privatization is the cure all. What do you think of the report private security contractors in Afganistan are funneling money and arms to the warlords (ie) Taliban...Or private contractors are the ones making it possible for 14 million or more illegal immigrants to survive and prosper in America ?
..Bighorn and Pragmatic.....A little truth and a little less spin would help....fact !....Democrats did not have control of Congress for one day of 2006, democrats took the reins in January of 2007, just before the bottom fell out of the economy and republicans ran out the back door.....Now their back knocking, promising to do a better job if they are let back in, promises, promises.......Fool me once.......well, you know how the rest of the saying goes
Speaking of spin, Ellis. You're doing nothing but spinning, on left-wing talking points. There is a whole hell of a lot more to ALL of those issues than just talking points.
The credit card reform bill is nothing more than trying to have government act as nanny and alleviate personal responsibility from the consumer. The negative "unintended consequences" for the majority once again outweighed the benefits for the minority who probably should NOT get credit in the first place since they can't handle it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mixed-blessing-credit-card-apf-2338521177.html?x=0
The Republicans DIDN'T oppose Wall Street reform, they opposed some part of it and wanted to fine-tune it. As has been typical, the Democrats decided to frame this as the Republicans being the party of NO, on the side of Wall Street. The final bill ends up codifying TBTF, blocking entry into the financial industry to all but the 5-7 TBTF entities who are even BIGGER than they were in '08 thanks to government largesse via very high capital requirements, and creating another massive government bureauocracy that will eventually wind up costing consumers who can manage their own affairs freedom of choice. Most importantly, the Democrats refused to deal with Fannie & Freddie, claiming that needed separate action. That has NOT been taken, because they WANT to continue the practices of getting people who can't afford homes into them, anyway. It's social engineering, at its worst.
http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/09/fannie-freddie-bailout-148b-and-counting.html
RE, taxes. It's class warfare at it's most base level and it's disgusting. What you people aren't understanding is that millions of people who aren't "wealthy" hope to be wealthy some day, and not be punished for it. You also don't seem to get that all money earned is NOT the property of the government, who can then decide how much they let us keep.
Aside from that, the tax cuts for the "wealthy" are less than 1/4 the value of the tax cuts for the middle class. And Keynesian economics, which this administration seems to be trying to use, warns AGAINST raising taxes during economic downturns. The problem isn't revenue, Ellis. The problem is spending.
RE: Privatization. I didn't even mention that, but I assume you mean the LIES Obama and the Democrats are telling regarding privatizing SS to demonize the Republicans?
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2010/aug/18/barack-obama/barack-obama-claims-republican-leaders-plan-privat/
http://factcheck.org/2010/08/obamas-latest-social-security-whopper/
RE: military contractors. Do you know WHY we use them? Because after the Cold War ended, we downscaled our military. They've been in use since the Clinton administration, and are STILL in use. Now if you want to argue that we shouldn't engage in military activity beyond what our own military can handle, or that we shouldn't have 2,000 military installations worldwide - I'd agree with you completely. But you're raging against a long-standing policy, that Obama continues. I'm not sure how that ends up entirely in the laps of the Republicans, and if it's a bad policy, it's just as much the responsbility of the Democrats.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-isenberg/civil-discourse-and-priva_b_543693.html
Re: illegal immigration. I'm all for prosecuting employers who KNOWINGLY hire illegal aliens. I fully support the recent Obama administration crack-down on illegal alien criminals. I also fully support a reasonable path to citizenship that includes learning English, back taxes and fines - AFTER the borders and ports are secure. So do many Republicans AND Democrats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/04/AR2006040401625.html
Once again, however, this is going to get screwed up - by potentially BOTH parties, because of the insistence upon COMPREHENSIVE immigration reform to maintain voting blocks - that's the ONLY reason. Once again, the Democrats will refuse to do anything incremental, dealing with one aspect of the problem at a time, starting first with port and border security and going from there. They're going to insist on doing another 2,000 page bill that no one has read much less completely understands, phased over 10 years, with an unknown, moving target pricetag.
And finally, do you really want to split hairs about the dates of power changes? Most people refer to change in leadership as having happened in the year the election took place. Yes, to be very specific, Bush and his Republican no-necks didn't take office until Jan. 2001, and the Democratic no-necks didn't take office until Jan. 2007. Obama didn't take office until Jan. '09.
And the Republicans that will take over the House won't do so until Jan. 2011, which is when recovery truly begins in this country because checks and balances will have been restored.
This country is not well served when one party holds power - and it doesn't matter which party. Carter's administration, the first two years of Clinton, six years of Bush and two years of Obama are proof.
Bob 48 are you saying there are no blacks or latinos in the Republican Party? Well you guys are in trouble.
The only certainty in politics is that nothing is certain. I am a retired journalist, and six decades of observation have convinced me that when the only information on which the pundits can rely is the opinion of other people, they are walking on quicksand, and they usually know it but choose to ignore it anyway, which is a foolish thing to do. A great many people, in my experience, say one thing for months and months and then at the last minute do just the opposite. People may intend to act a certain way, even for years, but when the time comes to act, they do something entirely different because the conditions they envisioned ahead of time are nothing like what they expected, and so they change course. People are unpredictable, politics are unpredictable. So why waste so much time and energy trying to predict what is going to happen when it is so much more interesting to analyze what did happen after the fact. The pundits do this because they want to appear to be much wiser than they actually are, which is an egotistical problem that is not journalism. It would change the entire political landscape if they were to just get out of the guessing-game business altogether and ween themselves off of the polls they so heavily rely on. Every voter in America can be a pre-election armchair "guesspert" but only the final election results are actual facts, and these facts have overturned "esteemed" political wisdom and "premiere" political analysts and pundits so many times, one would think they would have learned long ago to stop it, but it gets to be addictive like a drug, feeding their egos, not their brains, and they foolishly keep plowing on in spite of their demonstrated stupidity. It is this inability to perceive their stupidity that is the pundits' greatest enemy.
I fully agree. Until Nov. 3rd, we're all guessing. I'll hold off making my predictions until after the results are in.